Will poll campaign make India-Canada ties worse before they get better?

Canada was rocked by a scandal after the country’s officials alleged that India along with other nations is making sophisticated efforts to interfere in the country’s upcoming elections. Weeks before Canadians cast ballots on April 28, the country’s senior officials claimed that countries like India, China, Pakistan and Iran are all expected to make efforts to subvert the national vote.

They argued that these nations might interfere in the polls through increasingly sophisticated disinformation campaigns. Earlier this week, Canadian news outlet Globe and Mail newspaper cited top security officials, who alleged that Indian agents were involved in the fundraising and organising within Canada’s South Asian community to support Conservative politician Poilievre to gain party’s leadership in 2022.

However, Poilievre denied the allegations and said that he won the leadership “fair and square”. The allegations are also coming at a time when India-Canada ties have been down the drains. The two countries have been involved in an intense diplomatic row since 2023.

The layers of the India-Canada diplomatic row

The ties between the two nations took first hit in 2023 when former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood at the Canadian parliament and claimed that an Indian agent working for the government was involved in the assassination of pro-Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Before this, New Delhi has often raised concerns to Ottawa regarding the rise of the pro-Khalistani movement in the country.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs immediately rejected the allegations calling Trudeau’s allegations “ absurd”. While all this was happening, both nations also dismissed a major chunk of diplomats who were operating in each nation.

Given the turbulence, India also raised concerned about the safety of Indian diplomats in Canada, given the country’s failure to take take control of anti-India sentiments. However, India’s plea fell on deaf ears. While all this was happening, allegations started to float that India was meddling in Canada’s internal affairs, an accusation often rejected by India.

The election saga

Earlier this year, a landmark inquiry into foreign interference found that information manipulation is the biggest risk to the country’s democratic institutions.

“Most threat actors remain likely to conduct threat activities and have likely adapted their tradecraft to further conceal their foreign-interference activity, making it even more challenging to detect,” Vanessa Lloyd, deputy director of operations for Canada’s spy agency and chair of the security and intelligence threats to the elections task force, told reporters earlier this week.

On Wednesday, the Globe and Mail reported that former Liberal leadership hopeful Chandra Arya had been disqualified amid concerns over his relationship with India. The Canadian MP from the Liberal party was accused of being “susceptible to outside influence.”

Arya was elected to the House of Commons in 2015. In January this year, he was told that he was barred from formally entering the Liberal leadership race. He was also told that he was ineligible to run again in his electoral district. In both cases, the Liberal party did not provide further details on the matter.

A security source told the Globe that while Canada was having a fallout with India, Arya travelled to India in August and met the prime minister, Narendra Modi. Arya is not believed to have informed the government of his meeting.

“As a member of parliament, I have engaged with numerous diplomats and heads of government, both in Canada and internationally. Not once have I sought – nor been required to seek – permission from the government to do so,” the Canadian MP said in his defence. “The sole point of contention with the Liberal party has been my outspoken advocacy on issues important to Hindu Canadians and my firm stance against Khalistani extremism," he added.

Interestingly, Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, who doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons, announced late last week he would contest the electoral district of Nepean, previously held by Arya. When asked his take on the matter, Carne only said hostile actors were not to blame for the party’s delay in nominating candidates.

What do key candidates think about India?

The whole electoral race boils down to the leaders of the two key Canadian parties, i.e. Liberals and Conservatives. Here’s a look at how Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Party’s Mark Carney look at India:

• Mark Carney

Unlike Trudeau, Carney is seen as having a technocratic and global perspective, when it comes to Ottawa’s ties with one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. “There are opportunities to rebuild relationships with India, there needs to be a shared sense of values around commercial relationships and if I am the prime minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that,” said Carney, before being elected as the leader of the governing Liberal Party.

What is looked as another sign of approchement, Daniel Rogers, the head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, visited New Delhi, earlier this month for a meeting of international intelligence heads hosted by India’s National Security Council Secretariat. The event was also attended by both the US & UK intelligence chief and took place behind close doors.

Many also believe Trump’s tariff threats to both India and Canada have the potential to bring both nations closer to each other.

• Pierre Poilievre

Many experts in Canada questioned Poilievre’s silence on Trudeau’s allegations against India in the Nijjar Case. The conservative leader is known for being chronically online scrutinised for not making any post on the scandal.

After a brief silence, Poilievre went on to blame Trudeau for souring diplomatic ties with India, insisting that Ottawa needs a “professional relationship” with New Delhi. In an interview with Namaste Radio in Toronto, Poilievre blamed Trudeau for the mess.

“He’s turned Canadians against each other at home and he’s blown up our relations abroad,” Poilievre said during the interview in October 2023. “He is so incompetent and unprofessional that now we are in major disputes with almost every major power in the world and that includes India,” Poilievre continued. “It’s fine to have our disagreements and to hold each other accountable, but we have to have a professional relationship,” he said, adding that he would restore the ties if he wins the electoral race.

This gave an insights into the Conservative leaders plans after coming to power. Poilievre also often raised concerns about safety of Hindus in the country amid rising cases of vandalism in Hindu temples. Hence, it is safe to say both the the top Canadian candidates will be looking at mending ties with India.