Explained: The fallout as Donald Trump pulls US out of Paris climate agreement

United States President Donald Trump ordered to withdraw America from the 2015 Paris Agreement on the first day of his presidency. Just hours after taking the oath of office on Monday (January 20), Trump’s executive order said the US would consider pulling out of the international climate change treaty approved by nearly 200 countries “immediately.”

Trump’s decision comes at a crucial time for the world grappling with the climate crisis, including the ravaging Los Angeles wildfires. It also matters as the world crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming in 2024.

Let’s take a closer look.

What is the Paris Agreement?

In 2015, as many as 194 parties – 193 countries and the European Union (EU) – agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius at COP21, or the 21st Conference of the Parties, in France’s capital Paris.

The Paris Agreement, or the Paris Climate Accord, saw world leaders commit to keeping global warming below two degrees Celsius above “pre-industrial” levels.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold was important as evidence shows that the impact of climate change would be more severe if the world gets near 2 degrees Celsius of global warming.

Roughly 200 nations pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming. They agreed to reach net zero, a balance between the greenhouse gases emitted and the gases removed from the atmosphere.

“The Paris Agreement works on a five- year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries. Every five years, each country is expected to submit an updated national climate action plan - known as Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC,” according to the United Nations.

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Wealthy countries were also tasked with providing funds, known as climate finance, to poorer nations to mitigate climate change and switch to renewable energy.

The Paris Agreement, which was reached at the United Nations climate summit, came into force on November 4, 2016. It did not specifically spell out how countries should achieve the treaty’s goals and each country was responsible for formulating their own plans to meet the target.

Notably, it is a non-binding agreement and countries are not obligated to cut their climate pollution.

Trump pulls out of Paris Agreement, again

President Trump signed an executive order directing the US’ withdrawal from the landmark Paris climate agreement on Day 1 of his presidency as he sought to increase US production of fossil fuels.

“I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off,” the US President told a packed crowd at Capital One Arena in Washington after his swearing-in. “The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity,” he added.

Trump claimed pulling out of the pact would save the US “over a trillion” dollars.

This is not the first time he has removed the US from the Paris Agreement. During his first term as the US president, Trump announced in June 2017 that the US would withdraw from the global treaty. America was officially out in November 2020.

However, hours after his swearing-in four years ago, Joe Biden, the now former US president, signed an order for the US to rejoin the Paris Agreement.

Now, with Trump back at the White House, the US is again exiting the climate change treaty.

What US’ withdrawal means

The US leaving the Paris Agreement comes at a time when climate change is wreaking havoc around the world.

Heat waves, flooding, and wildfires have become more intense and common, leaving a trail of destruction.

Last year was the hottest on record with the Earth becoming 1.6 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times, making 2024 the first calendar year to surpass the 1.5-degree limit set under the Paris climate agreement in 2015.

The US is already behind its 2030 climate targets. Trump’s plan to exit the Paris Agreement has effectively derailed the Biden administration’s promise that the US would cut climate pollution by up to 66 per cent by 2035.

After China, the US is the second biggest carbon polluter driving up global temperatures.

Trump’s decision has also put into question the US’ commitment to providing billions of dollars to poorer nations suffering from the impact of climate change, as per a Politico report.

The US’ withdrawal could also stonewall the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“By leaving the Paris Agreement, this administration has abdicated its responsibility to protect the American people and our national security. But rest assured, our states, cities, businesses, and local institutions stand ready to pick up the baton of US climate leadership and do all they can — despite federal complacency — to continue the shift to a clean energy economy,” Gina McCarthy, a climate adviser under Biden who co-chairs America Is All In, a climate coalition, told Politico.

After Trump’s announcement, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said “the door remains open to the Paris Agreement.”

Stiell mentioned the clean-energy boom emerging across the world, valued at $2 trillion last year and rising. He warned the nations that do not adapt will be left behind.

“Ignoring it only sends all that vast wealth to competitor economies, while climate disasters like droughts, wildfires and superstorms keep getting worse, destroying property and businesses, hitting nation-wide food production, and driving economy-wide price inflation.”

As per Politico, activists and former Biden officials believe pulling out of the Paris Agreement would hurt the US and give an advantage to China and other competitors in clean energy manufacturing.

Can US rejoin Paris climate pact?

Under the Paris deal, any withdrawal from the pact is supposed to be implemented one year from the day a country formally notifies the United Nations of its intention to get out.

It is unclear whether Trump plans to abandon this notice period.

The US can rejoin the Paris Agreement but it depends on what the Trump administration does next. America can also send a delegation to take part in annual climate talks but it would probably be less influential, as per Politico.

With inputs from agencies