Panic in Pakistan after India's Indus waters action, 21% water shortage expected for kharif season

As India has restricted the flow of the Chenab and other rivers entering Pakistan, Islamabad’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee on Monday expressed deep concern over the sudden drop in Chenab inflows at the Marala Barrage due to limited supply from the Indian side.

According to an IRSA press release, this could lead to a 21 per cent water shortage during Pakistan’s early Kharif season.

“It was unanimously noted with concern that the sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala, due to short supply from India, would result in further shortages during the early Kharif season,” IRSA said.

Pakistan is likely to face a significant water shortage during the Kharif season if India tightens control over the westward-flowing rivers into Pakistan and the current situation persists.

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IRSA predicts 21 per cent water shortfall for early Kharif

The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) forecasted an overall shortage of 21 per cent for the remainder of the early Kharif season, assuming that supplies in the Chenab River return to normal. However, the situation will be monitored daily, and if the decline in Chenab’s flow continues, the projected shortages will be reassessed. Shortages during the late Kharif season are expected to be around 7 per cent, the statement added.

This development comes as India is urgently preparing the Baglihar and Salal hydropower plants on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir to store and manage water flow to Pakistan during the winter months. This includes limited flushing and desilting of the reservoirs.

In the coming days, similar procedures will be undertaken at other dams to boost India’s internal water storage capacity. These steps form part of a broader plan to restrict the flow of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers to Pakistan, following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty after last month’s terror attack in Pahalgam.

India suspended the treaty after the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which it alleged was linked to cross-border elements. The attack, carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists, claimed the lives of 26 people, most of them tourists.

This marks the first time India has unilaterally suspended the agreement, citing national security concerns. Although both nuclear-armed neighbours have fought four wars, the World Bank-brokered treaty had remained in force until now.