India to overtake Japan as world’s 4th largest economy in 2025, poised to surpass Germany by 2028: IMF

India is set to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan, according to a report, citing the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook released in April 2025.

According to a Times of India report, India’s nominal GDP for 2025 (FY26) is expected to be $4,187.017 billion — slightly ahead of Japan’s estimated $4,186.431 billion.

Until 2024, India ranked as the world’s fifth-largest economy, but according to the latest IMF projections, it is expected to rise to fourth place in 2025.

In the coming years, India is also poised to surpass Germany and become the third-largest economy. By 2028, India’s GDP is projected to reach $5,584.476 billion, exceeding Germany’s estimated $5,251.928 billion. India is expected to cross the $5 trillion mark in 2027, with a projected GDP of $5,069.47 billion, added the report.

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The United States and China are projected to remain the world’s two largest economies in 2025 and are expected to hold these positions throughout the decade, reported ToI, citing the latest IMF estimates.

In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF also cautioned that the global economic order that has shaped international trade and finance for the past 80 years is undergoing a significant reset, signaling the beginning of a new era.

The report revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.2%, down from the earlier estimate of 6.5% released in January.

The downward revision reflects rising global uncertainty, particularly due to tariff-related policy decisions by US President Donald Trump.

“For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2% in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the January 2025 WEO Update on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,” ToI quoted the IMF report as saying.

With inputs from agencies