How has the US-India relationship fared during first 100 days of Trump’s second term?

 US President Donald Trump has been in office for 100 days.

During this time, the US relationship with India has been one of high and lows.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States and the impending trade deal between Washington and New Delhi are some of the peaks.

The images of illegal immigrants and back in handcuffs and the visas of Indian students being cancelled are among the lowlights.

Let’s take a closer look at the peaks and valleys of the relationship during this all-important period.

The highs

PM Modi’s visit

In February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a two-day trip to the United States.

The trip saw Modi become the fourth world leader to visit Trump in his second term.

The two presidents held bilateral talks and displayed a bonhomie that Trump has rarely shown with other world leaders.

Trump described Modi as a ‘great leader’, while the Indian Prime Minister referred to the US president as a ‘friend.’

“The people of America are aware of President Trump’s motto, ‘Make America Great Again’ or MAGA,” Modi said.

“Borrowing an expression from the US, our vision for a developed India is to ‘Make India Great Again’, or MIGA. When America and India work together, when it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega – a mega partnership for prosperity.”

Modi also compared himself and Trump.

“One thing that I deeply appreciate and I learned from President Trump is that he keeps the national interest supreme,” Modi said. “And like him, I also keep the national interest of India at the top of everything else.”

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Trump and Modi found common ground on a variety of issues including F-35s, terrorism, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, and nuclear energy.

The US in a historic first agreeing to provide India with F-35s – a fifth-generation aircraft and by all accounts the most complete stealth fighter in the world.

The two men also agreed to cooperate on terrorism – which came in the backdrop of the extradition of 2008 Mumbai terror attack accused Tahawwur Rana.

“I am pleased to announce that my administration has approved of one of the extradition plotters (Tahawwur Rana) and one of the very evil people of the world, having to do with the horrific 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack to face justice in India,” Trump said.

“He is going back to India to face justice,” he added.

“In addition, the United States and India will be working together like never before to confront the threat of radical Islamic terrorism – a threat all over the world, actually.”

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was also brought up.

“We agreed to work together to help build one of the greatest trade routes in all of history. It will run from India to Israel to Italy and onward to the United States, connecting our partners by ports, railways and undersea cables – many, many undersea cables,” Trump was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera.

The two countries also vowed to cooperate on nuclear energy.

“In order to ensure India’s energy security, we will focus on trade in oil and gas. Investment in energy infrastructure will also increase in nuclear energy. We also discussed increasing cooperation on small modular reactors,” Modi said.

“In the ground-breaking development for the US nuclear industry, India is also reforming its laws to welcome US nuclear technology, which is at the highest level, into the Indian market. This will bring safe, clean and affordable electricity to millions of Indians and tens of billions of dollars to the US civilian nuclear industry in India,” Trump added.

Impending US-India trade deal

The meeting between Trump and Modi even as the US president had threatened to impose tariffs on trading partners including India – whom he previously called a ‘tariff king’ and ‘a big abuser of tariffs.’

However, that didn’t stop the two men from agreeing to ‘Mission 500’ – doubling the bilateral trade between two countries to $300 billion by 2030.

Trade between the two countries currently stands at a little over $129 billion.

The US is India’s largest bilateral trading partner.

Washington currently has a $45.7 billion trade deficit with New Delhi, as per Financial Times.

“We have also set ourselves the target of more than doubling our bilateral trade to attain $500 billion by 2030,” Modi said.

“ Prime Minister Modi and I have agreed that we will be in negotiations to address the long-running disparities,” Trump said at the time at the joint press conference, as per Al Jazeera.

“But really, we want a certain level of playing field, which we really think we’re entitled to.”

Trump and Modi also agreed to conclude the first phase of the bilateral trade deal by fall of this year.

It appears the trade deal is getting closer and closer – the terms of reference for the deal have been finalised.

On Monday,  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that India is likely to be among the first countries to finalise a bilateral trade agreement with to avert reciprocal tariffs by President Trump.

Bessent made these remarks on Monday during an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box

“Negotiations with our Asian trading partners are going very well. Vice President (JD) Vance was in India last week and talked about substantial progress,” Bessent said.

Reuters on Tuesday quoted Indian officials as saying that New Delhi is prepared to include a sweetener in trade talks with Washington that would “future-proof” a deal by ensuring no other trade partners could have superior terms.

The “forward most-favoured-nation” clause, rarely granted by India in previous trade negotiations, would automatically apply to the US any more-favourable tariff arrangements that might be agreed with other countries, two officials with direct knowledge of the matter told the outlet.

“This clause, in a sense, future-proofs the U.S. deal and is the only way to do so,” one of the officials said.

The officials declined to be identified because of the private and sensitive nature of the negotiations.

India has already made a number of offers and pre-emptive concessions to the U.S. on trade, showing itself more eager than several other big U.S. trading partners including China, Canada and the European Union.

The lows

Illegal immigrants sent back in handcuffs

The pictures of illegal immigrants being sent back to India and handcuffs were a decided low.

Hundreds of Indians who had been living in the United States illegally were sent back on a military plane.

But it was the manner in which they were allegedly treated that caused a furor.

The Indians claimed that their hands and legs were shackled during the trip.

Images of the men wearing handcuffs, chains around their ankles and their hands bound behind their back went viral.

“We thought we were being taken to another camp. Then a police officer told us that we were being taken to India. We were handcuffed, and our legs were chained. These were opened at Amritsar airport,” one of men told PTI.

Officials at the time told News18 that the illegal immigrants being handcuffed during the flight is standard protocol during deportation.

The official added this is done to ensure the safety of all aboard and avoiding any untoward incidents.

However, the Press Information Bureau (PIB) claimed that the pictures were of Guatemalans and not Indians.

The image was first published by the news agency Associated Press on February 1 with the caption saying, “US Air Force jet with migrants bound at their wrists and ankles departed Texas for Guatemala on Thursday, carrying 80 deportees in another deportation flight that reflects a growing role for the armed forces in helping enforce immigration laws.”

Foreign minister S Jaishankar at the time said the Indian government was in touch with Washington to ensure detainees were not being mistreated.

“…We are engaging the US government to ensure the returning deportees are not mistreated in any manner,” he had said amid outrage from the opposition.

Indian students’ visas cancelled

Over 1,000 Indian students in America also had their visas abruptly cancelled till mid-March – leaving many anxious and fearing for the future.

Chand Parvathaneni, a Texas-based immigration attorney, told DW many of the students had been charged with “minor violations.”

“The government has not given the students a chance to respond back so now students are needing the intervention of the court,” Parvathaneni said.

One student told DW he was arrested “while helping out an injured friend because he could not drive.”

He said he was charged with a crime but not convicted.

A job offer was revoked after his visa expired.

“I took out a massive loan to study in the US which I still have to repay. I worked hard for four years and I am at a stage of settling down. If I lose all of this over a mistake, then what is the point?” he asked. “What am I supposed to tell my aging parents back home?”

What do experts say?

They say India seems well poised 100 days into the second Trump administration.

“Delhi has had to navigate the Trump Administration’s policies on trade and immigration, and now, increasingly, global security. On each, it has managed to play a holding game and, in many cases, made progress,” a piece in Indian Express noted.

The piece said the difficulty will be to find a balance that favours both nations.

“There is some reason to be optimistic,” the piece stated.

A piece in The Quint stated that India, amongst all the angst and upheaval, remains in a ‘sweet spot.’

“Trump’s loquaciousness in the media and social media have observers guessing as to his real intentions. New Delhi realises that Trump is a showman, a disruptor, a politician running on instinct and impulse, and though his observations may at times seem unorthodox if not outrageous, they have some element of consistency,” the piece stated.

The piece said India could be well-positioned to take advantage of the trade war between US and China.

“With US firms scrambling to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency on China, India could emerge as a key manufacturing partner and investment destination,” the piece noted.

However, it noted that the two countries could do much more in the future.

“India and the US have an opportunity to build a partnership anchored in deep-tech integration, from semiconductors and AI to defence tech and quantum computing,” it stated.

Another piece in the Indian Express noted India’s importance to America – particularly when it comes to China.

“India is special to Trump and America. Beyond it being a growth and balanced-trade partner, it could be a situational political and military ally to the US whenever the two countries’ objectives converge.

The piece pointed specifically to trade between the two nations as a possible win-win.

“My belief is that in exchange for balanced trade and win-win based growth, Trump wants India to buy more from the US, namely energy and defence products and services. It will be product-by-product reciprocity. India’s currency will then appreciate. It could go to 80 INR to 1 USD by December 2027,” the piece stated.

“I am convinced that India’s approach will be well thought out and friendly, that US-India negotiations will be done on an amicable basis. I believe India will be well-positioned in the emerging world economic order,” it concluded.

With inputs from agencies