How a mystery French trader won $49 million betting on Donald Trump

Elon Musk isn’t the only one whose bet on Donald Trump is paying off.

A mysterious French trader made $49 million after betting that the former president would romp to victory.

While many professional pollsters said the race was too close to call and that both Kamala Harris and Trump had an equal shot at winning the race, Theo begged to differ.

The trader, known only as ‘Theo’, wagered that Trump would win all the key swing states as well prevail in the popular vote, according to several media reports.

But what do we know? And how did he do it?

Let’s take a closer look:

What do we know?

The trader, known as the ‘Trump whale,’ made his money on the crypto betting website Polymarket.

As per The Wall Street Journal, Theo said he bet over $30 million by betting through four anonymous accounts.

He described himself as a wealthy Frenchman and a trader who worked for several banks.

Theo has claimed that he is politically unaffiliated and that he has nothing more than a financial motive for his bets.

Theo has been in constant touch with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal – to whom he has outlined his method.

As per The Telegraph, Theo goes by the name Fredi9999 on the platform.

How did he do it?

The newspaper reported that he began utilising his mathematical expertise to the subject over the summer.

Theo told the reporter rather than relying on conventional polls, he instead opted for the ‘neighbour approach.’

Rather than asking people who they would be voting for, he instead queried about which candidate they thought their neighbours would be casting their ballot in favour of.

The Telegraph reported that Theo commissioned some of these polls himself.

Theo said he believes that while people might be reticent to talk about their own political beliefs, this is not the case when it comes to the views of their friends and neighbours.

As per Business Standard, this approach undercuts what he believes to be the inherit biases with traditional polls.

Theo said mainstream pollsters constantly underrated Trump’s popularity – particularly in the key swing states.

Theo said his own surveys revealed that the depth of Trump’s support was far deeper – and stronger – than what the traditional polls showed.

He also, yet again, brought up the ‘ shy Trump voters’ – those who vote for Trump but refuse to tell others that they have done so.

Theo said he believes that that many supporters of the president-elect refuse to do so – thus being undercounted by pollsters, particularly in swing states.

The Telegraph quoted Theo as saying that French polls were far more precise than those of the US.

“In France this is different!! The pollster credibility is more important: they want to be as close as possible to the actual results. Culture is different on this,” Theo claimed.

“Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbour effect,” he added.

Polymarket has corroborated parts of his story, as per the newspaper.

But Theo’s story may not have a happy ending – at least for gamblers in France.

According to QZ, Theo’s tale of success on Polymarket is drawing attention from regulators in France.

The country already heavily regulates online gambling.

“We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,” French betting regulator Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) spokesperson told Bloomberg News on Thursday.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has claimed that Trump’s team “literally found out they were winning” from the platform.

Theo wasn’t the only one to place a big bet.

Canadian streamer Félix Lengyel, better known as xQC, placed a $700,000 bet on Harris and lost.

Lengyel, who received odds of 2.30, would have netted around $1.6 million in case of a Harris win.

“This better hit LMFAO, the odds were too good I had to. Don’t get it twisted US. PS: Don’t get mad I can’t even vote I’m Canadian,” the streamer wrote on the social media app X.

With inputs from agencies

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