Distressed democracy: Is ‘Trump threat’ overrated in US politics? Experts debate and stand divided

Democracy, often celebrated as the pillar of modern governance, faces unprecedented challenges today, political scientists across the world issue this warning more than ever. While discussions on democracy’s struggles often revolve around developing nations, it is now the United States itself that finds its democratic system in distress. The latest election cycle has not only deepened political divisions but also raised fundamental questions about the trajectory of American democracy. This was the focus of a session titled “Distressed Democracy” at Firstpost’s IdeasPod, held as part of the annual Raisina Dialogue, organised by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in partnership with the Ministry of External Affairs.

The session featured distinguished panelists: Jane Holl Lute, President and Chief Executive Officer of SICPA, United States of America, and Max Abrahms, Associate Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University, US. Moderated by Gautam Chikermane, Vice President of ORF, the discussion delved into the return of Donald Trump, the state of American political parties and the broader economic and ideological undercurrents fuelling today’s political scenario.

The return of Trump: A reflection of democracy in action?

Kicking off the discussion, Chikermane raised a crucial question: What does the return of Trump signify for American politics?

Lute responded by emphasising that Trump’s victory was not an anomaly but rather a reflection of the democratic system functioning as designed. “Well, I think you can at some level read it as, you know, democracy worked in the United States the way it was designed to do. He was elected with a majority of the vote, but not over 50 per cent of the vote. So 50 per cent of the United States voting public voted for this president, and roughly 50 per cent did not.”

According to Lute, America remains deeply divided and traditional political affiliations hold less significance than before. “Whether someone is a Republican or a Democrat is the least interesting thing about them, because these terms have really come to have far less meaning than they did in the past,” she said.

With an electorate split down the middle, the political landscape allows for great volatility but compels no decisive action.

Trump vs the establishment: A political shake-up

Trump’s political rise was as much about challenging his own party as it was about defeating the Democrats.

Abrahms agreed, noting the dramatic transformation within the Republican Party. He said, “There’s been a huge transformation within the GOP and some of Trump’s biggest political adversaries have actually been Republicans, the so-called Never Trumpers, right?”

Trump’s political appeal, according to Abrahms, extends beyond traditional Republican values, incorporating themes historically associated with the Democratic Party, such as economic policies aimed at supporting the working class. However, one of the most striking developments in recent months has been the weakening resistance to Trump.

“One thing I’ve been struck by, which wasn’t clear, you know, two months ago, is how weak the resistance to Trump has become. His first term as president was absolutely consumed by political opponents on the right and on the left. He seems to have nullified or at least obstructed a lot of this opposition.”

Abrahms highlighted declining approval ratings for the Democratic Party pointing to the State of the Union-like address in the past month as an example of the party’s diminished standing.

Weak Democratic leadership: A factor in Trump’s success?

When asked whether Trump’s dominance was due to specific issues or weak leadership from Joe Biden, Abrahms did not hesitate in his response. “I think it is the latter. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious, salient, highly capable Democrat alternative.”

He pointed out that while some charismatic figures exist within the Democratic Party, they are often seen as fringe candidates. “Like AOC, for example, out of New York—it’s not clear that she could win on a national level,” he remarked.

The absence of a compelling alternative to Trump, he suggested, was a major reason for his political endurance. “Frankly, one of the reasons why he won in the first place was because the combination of both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden was so weak.”

Anxiety behind the anger: What drives American political frustration?

Lute offered a broader perspective arguing that the frustration behind Trump’s rise was not exclusive to the United States. “There is an anxiety-based anger, but not just in the United States. You could see this 15 years ago. I’ve served in both Republican and Democratic administrations. I’m affiliated with neither party, but you could see when I was last in government a while ago that publics around the world were angry and they were angry in an anxiety-driven way.”

Unlike purpose-driven anger, which can lead to violence, this form of anger stems from widespread distrust. “The people felt like we can’t trust business, we can’t trust the banks, we can’t trust the market, we can’t trust the media, we don’t trust our governments.”

This global trend of disillusionment has played out in different ways across countries, but in the US, it has manifested through the political process, enabling Trump’s rise. “There are plenty of issues to choose from because he’s heading in a direction on a number of fronts that people who supported him wanted, some of which people who supported him did not exactly want, and the people who opposed him didn’t at all want.”

Capitalism vs democracy: A collision course?

When Chikermane posed the question of whether capitalism was clashing with democracy, Abrahms acknowledged that economic inequality had contributed to Trump’s success. “I do think that there is resentment which has fuelled Trump’s rise. The MAGA movement is in part a critique of an unfair, capitalistic system.”

He pointed out that Trump’s “America First” economic policies, including his controversial stance on tariffs, resonated with his support base. “Although Trump’s views on tariffs are controversial around the world, among his support base within MAGA, there is quite a bit of support for that because there’s a sense that they’ve been ignored.”

Lute expanded on this sentiment noting that many Americans feel their country has been taken for granted globally. “There is a not-small feeling, in other words, a relatively widespread feeling, that the United States has been taken for granted around the world, that the United States has been the underwriter of global stability over the past eighty years or more, that we have been the underwriters of global prosperity. And so, you know, people feel like when there’s an awful lot of criticism of the United States as well, it seems wrong and unfair. The US needs to level the playing field in fighting back.”

She also noted the ideological shift within the Democratic Party. “Part of what’s at the core of the American ethos is equality of opportunity, not necessarily equality of outcome. And some have argued that over the past dozen or more years, the left or the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has been pushing an equality of outcome agenda, not an equality of opportunity agenda.”

A system in flux

While Trump’s rise has been emblematic of deeper frustrations within the electorate, broader forces of economic disparity, political polarisation and institutional distrust continue to shape the nation’s future.

Lute remained optimistic, believing that the American system would eventually self-correct. “Having said all that, I believe our system will eventually correct itself.”

With an election cycle that remains as unpredictable as ever, the question remains: Is American democracy merely distressed, or is it undergoing an irreversible transformation?