Carney vs. Poilievre: Candidates make final pitch to voters ahead of Canadian election

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre are set to deliver their final appeals to voters on Sunday, ahead of an election that will determine who will handle upcoming tariff negotiations with US President Donald Trump.

On Saturday, Carney campaigned in Ontario, the country’s most populous province, highlighting his experience steering the economic turmoil sparked by Trump’s tariffs. Poilievre, meanwhile, focused on the need for political change after nearly ten years of Liberal leadership under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Authorities said it was too early to assess whether a mass casualty event in Vancouver — where a driver struck a crowd at a street festival, killing and injuring several — would influence the election outcome.

Carney, a former central bank chief and college hockey goalie who assumed office earlier this year following Trudeau’s resignation, referenced Canada’s national sport during his campaign efforts ahead of Monday’s vote.

The U.S. president’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has helped the Liberal Party flip the narrative heading into Monday’s parliamentary election, at least in opinion polls.

“Trump is the campaign,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said. “The ballot question is who is the person we are going to choose to face Trump. Everything has changed.”

Foreign policy hasn’t affected a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States dominated the political discourse.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal leader who was sworn in on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, led in the polls heading into Monday, marking a dramatic turnaround for a party that seemed destined for a crushing defeat until Trump started launching broadsides at Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

“We are in a crisis. President Trump is threatening Canada, he’s threatening our companies, he’s threatening our workers, he’s threatening the savings our our retirees,” Carney said Tuesday. “This threat is not only an economic threat, it is an existential threat.”

What will the result of Canada’s election mean for the US?

Trump has threatened to slap steep tariffs on Canadian goods, and both Carney and Poilievre said that, if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of the countries’ free trade deal in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.

Carney plans to diversify Canada’s exports and is reviewing the remaining purchase order of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options “given the changing environment.” Carney visited Paris and London, not Washington, for his first trips as prime minister.

But almost 80 per cent of Canada’s exports go to the US.

“Let’s be honest, if Canada does a remarkable job — a remarkable job — of diversifying trade, what is that going to look like?” said former Foreign Minister John Baird, noting that even shifting 3-5% over five years would be quite an achievement.

“Let’s keep our eye on the main ball. They are 78 per cent of our customers so we need to tackle that challenge," said Baird, a Conservative who works as a senior advisor at a law firm.

What do the polls say?

Pollsters say Carney’s Liberal Party holds a narrow lead in popular support ahead of final voting, after Trump slapped tariffs on Canada and repeatedly referred to the once close ally as the 51st U.S. state. Trump’s comments enraged Canadians and reversed a lead of some 20 points by Poilievre, whom the Liberals have compared to Trump.

A Nanos poll on Saturday said the gap between the two front-running parties has narrowed nationally to approximately three percentage points, from closer to four a day earlier, with the Conservatives making up ground especially in Ontario. The poll put national Liberal support at 41.9% versus 38.6% for the Conservatives.

That result in national voting would usually translate into a Liberal win, because the party’s support is more concentrated than the Conservatives’ in urban areas rich with electoral districts, or seats. It is unclear if it would result in the Liberals winning a majority of seats to govern without a smaller party’s help.

Nanos surveyed 1,291 adult Canadians between April 23 and 25 and is accurate to 2.7 percentage points.

According to another Saturday poll by Angus Reid, voter intention favors the Liberals by four percentage points over Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Poilievre’s promises of change and his pledges to curb living costs have resonated with young men, among others, leading to large crowds at rallies.

”We can’t afford four more years of the Liberals,” Poilievre told supporters in British Columbia on Saturday as they cheered ”bring it home” and waved placards reading ”change.”

Carney, who has distanced himself from Trudeau’s policies since taking over in March and has attracted mainly older voters to rallies, is expected to hold a frenetic four-province canvassing sprint on Sunday.

Voters in suburban Toronto waited over two hours in a cold, windy airport hangar on Saturday to hear Carney speak, waving placards reading ”Canada Strong” and ”Elbows up,” a hockey phrase used by Canadians to signify resisting Trump.

With inputs from agencies