Carney’s smart messaging and Trump: The factors that led to Liberals win in Canada elections

It’s a comeback that many won’t forget for a while. The Mark Carney-led Liberal Party has won the federal election in Canada, according to Canadian broadcasters, though it is still unclear if the party will have a majority government, or be held to a minority for the third consecutive election.

Carney, who took over as prime minister after Justin Trudeau stepped down earlier this year, has beaten the leader of the Conservative Party Pierre Poilievre, according to CBC and CTV News projections.

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The results, which are still coming in, marks a stunning recovery for the Liberals, who were on course to lose power until Justin Trudeau, prime minister for almost a decade, quit as party leader earlier this year and was replaced by Carney in March.

But how did this poll reversal take place? What are the factors that worked in favour of Carney and the Liberals, leaving the Conservatives and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, disappointed and confused?

Liberals edge Conservatives at the polls

Before we examine the factors contributing to the Liberals win at the polls, let’s take a closer look at how they fared at the polls.

At last count, Liberals are projected to win 161 seats. In Canada, a party requires to win 172 seats to form a government. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are trailing at 150 seats. Yves-François Blanchet-led Bloc Québécois is at 23 seats while Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) is leading in eight seats.

Carney, the Liberal leader, who is projected to continue as prime minister, has also been projected to win a seat in Parliament for the first time in Ottawa’s Nepean riding. Earlier, there was much speculation about where Carney, after he took the helm of the party, would choose to run for a seat. It’s the first time he has sought and won public office.

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Shortly after Canadian media projected a win for Carney and the Liberals, a crowd at the party’s headquarters erupted in cheers, “Carney, Carney, Carney.” Meanwhile, the mood at the Conservatives headquarters soured, with many supporters left wondering where they went wrong.

A turnaround unlike any other

The performance at the polls means the Liberals, led by Carney, have won a fourth term, which a few months ago, many thought would be unthinkable.

In fact, just three months before the polls, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives by 25 per cent in popular opinion polls. After nearly 10 years in power and led by the then increasingly unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberals seemed poised for certain defeat.

However, with the departure of Trudeau in January, Carney’s subsequent appointment and Trump’s threats against Canada helped turn things around for the Liberals. As David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, a leading Canadian polling and market research company, told ABC News earlier, “Our heads are spinning here in Canada a little bit at how quick things have changed. It’s pretty unique around the world to see an incumbent party that had been in office for 10 years, deeply unpopular, quickly replaced their leader, and within weeks, be in a place where they’re now the favourites to win the election.”

Even Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister, noted that it was “a remarkable turnaround”. “Back in December, people had totally written us off … and now you’re talking about what the strength of our government will be,” she was quoted as saying by The Guardian, adding “Kudos to our Prime Minster Mark Carney… he has been a great campaigner”.

Mark Carney’s smart messaging

Many credit the win to Mark Carney and his messaging throughout the elections. The former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, who only recently became prime minister, has been projected as the man who could save the country from Trump and his threats.

As 20-year-old Luka Jovic, who works for the Liberals, told the BBC this result was unthinkable just four months ago. “Mark Carney has done a fantastic job.” He further added that Carney “is a leader who embodies true Canadian spirit”. “He didn’t need to do this. But he stepped up at a time when Canada needed it, and that’s important.”

Many pollsters believe that his tough position on US President Donald Trump helped the party at the polls. Standing up against the US president and his constant threats of making Canada the 51st state of America, Carney said, “Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us.

“They want our resources, they want our water, they want our land, they want our country. They can’t have it.”

In fact, a day before the vote, Carney had said, “This is Canada — and we decide what we do here.”

Moreover, the 60-year-old quickly established that he was different from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau — more focused on the economy and on building new trade and security alliances, given the new foreign policy coming from Washington. His first steps were to cancel some of Trudeau’s less popular policies, such as a carbon tax on consumers, and to visit two European allies, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Throughout the campaign, he distanced himself from Trudeau. He said the former prime minister did not focus enough on growing Canada’s economy.

Conservatives couldn’t pivot

Another important factor that helped the Liberals secure this turnaround was the fact that the Conservatives, led by Poilievre, weren’t able to pivot during the campaign trail. Kory Teneycke, a leading Conservative strategist, told ABC News, “[The Conservatives] were on track to winning the the largest majority government in Canadian history, and it all kind of crumbled in the in the matter of three, four months.”

According to him, this occurred because Poilievre pivoted too late to the main theme of this election. “I don’t think Poilievre even uttered the name of Donald Trump until eight days into the campaign, when it was by far the number one issue for the electorate,” Teneycke said.

Additionally, Poilievre was left on the backfoot with Trudeau’s departure and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.

Many also note that Poilievre’s positions — he had a “Canada First” slogan, wanted tighter borders, smaller government and to end what right-wing politicians consider wokeness — that mirror Trump eventually hurt the Conservative leader, as anti-Trump sentiments kept growing stronger and stronger in the North American nation.

As Teneycke said, “The Conservatives’ slogans, the campaign theme… All of that made voters who were very focused on Trump very uncomfortable with Poilievre.”

Donald Trump — the biggest factor

But perhaps, what was the biggest factor that helped the Liberals to win the polls was US President Donald Trump.

Pollsters and pundits note that Trump’s focus on Canada really helped the Liberals at the ballot. The US president threatened and then imposed steep tariffs on Canadian imports. He has also repeatedly suggested Canada would be better off as America’s 51st state.

But it seemed the more Trump talked about Canada, the more the political landscape turned on its head in favour of the Liberals. As a BBC analysis noted, the US president’s constant badgering of America’s northern neighbour was a big assist for Carney and his party. It enabled the Liberals to portray a strong image of someone standing up to the US president.

Carney through the campaign stated that Canadians needed to understand the country’s close relationship with the US was ruptured by Trump’s actions, including the president’s claims that Canada should be the 51st state. In the final week of March, when Trump signed an order to implement auto tariffs, Carney said: “It’s clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner.”

As Bloomberg reported, Carney’s calm, low-key manner in public and his experience as a policymaker and economist helped reassure voters that he was the best person to take on the challenge of guiding Canada in a new world order, and he swiftly won back people who had become disillusioned with Trudeau.

Now, that Carney has steered his party to a win, he will have to live up to his claims of being a consummate crisis manager.

With inputs from agencies